For Cradle/Surface 2 the chances of a guard choosing to throw a grenade seems to be 11/256 = 4.3% or 1 in 23.27.
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For Cradle/Surface 2 the chances of a guard choosing to throw a grenade seems to be 11/256 = 4.3% or 1 in 23.27.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=18518.msg383444#msg383444|title=the-elite facts topic post on cradle/surface 2 grenade odds|access-date=July 16, 2021}}</ref>